@nerdbeard Except, these fast mutating viruses are always one step ahead of our vaccines, so that we haven't been able to drive them to extinction.
Now, where did I read that multiple strains of COVID-19 have already been spotted?
MIT thinks it will take a minimum of 18 months, if it works at all:
My friend also believed that we'll have a vaccine soon.
I don't know anything about vaccines, but I wouldn't be so hopeful while we still don't even have a vaccine to eradicate the common cold 😞
I don't want to scare anyone, but believing that we'll go back to normal in just 1 month is dangerously optimistic.
Realistically, places that lift the lockdown measures _will_ certainly see a second epidemic wave, until COVID-19 goes completely extinct.
I know, my math isn't very accurate. I even rounded up the world population to 8 billions and then rounded up 8000x to 8192 so I could compute the log2() easily 🙂
But with exponential curves, it doesn't even matter all that much.
Even if we assume that confirmed cases are only 50% of real infections, we'd save just one week from my 90 day estimate.
Global cases doubled from 500K on March 26th to 1M on April 2nd in 7 days.
Assuming the infection rate doesn't change, it will be over in:
math.log2(8000) * 7 ~= 13 * 7 = 90 days
But the infection *will* slow down as governments wake up and enforce deeper lockdowns, so mine 90 days is *fastest* possible resolution.
The virus still has potential room for 8000x growth before running out of humans. (assuming no mutations that allow re-infecting the same hosts multiple times).
Yesterday I was chatting with an American friend who optimistically thought we'd be out of this by next month, based on the current term of the Bay Area shelter-in place restrictions (May 3rd).
So let's do some back-of-the envelope calculations to see how fast it could end, at the very best:
Today we cross 1M confirmed cases 😱
11 pages about our 10-line BASIC game for the Commodore 64:
A minor accomplishment after collaborating on a whole book (also available for free) about a ONE-line BASIC program:
But still, you might find these fun, particularly if you're looking through entries in the BASIC 10 Liner Contest now and thinking about entering next year
@InvaderXan I'm definitely gaining weight with my "home cooking"
@rfb Last time I took the exam, my problem was actually being too slow at reading and running out of time to answer all the questions
@rfb My N3 coverage is spotty, because WaniKani doesn't proceed in JLPT order and not even Joyo order.
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