Bernie @[email protected]

@jxself We are all doomed. DOOOOOOOMED!

@nerdbeard Except, these fast mutating viruses are always one step ahead of our vaccines, so that we haven't been able to drive them to extinction.

Now, where did I read that multiple strains of COVID-19 have already been spotted?

MIT thinks it will take a minimum of 18 months, if it works at all:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615331/a-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-at-least-18-monthsif-it-works-at-all/

My friend also believed that we'll have a vaccine soon.

I don't know anything about vaccines, but I wouldn't be so hopeful while we still don't even have a vaccine to eradicate the common cold 😞

I don't want to scare anyone, but believing that we'll go back to normal in just 1 month is dangerously optimistic.

Realistically, places that lift the lockdown measures _will_ certainly see a second epidemic wave, until COVID-19 goes completely extinct.

I know, my math isn't very accurate. I even rounded up the world population to 8 billions and then rounded up 8000x to 8192 so I could compute the log2() easily 🙂

But with exponential curves, it doesn't even matter all that much.

Even if we assume that confirmed cases are only 50% of real infections, we'd save just one week from my 90 day estimate.

Global cases doubled from 500K on March 26th to 1M on April 2nd in 7 days.

Assuming the infection rate doesn't change, it will be over in:

math.log2(8000) * 7 ~= 13 * 7 = 90 days

But the infection *will* slow down as governments wake up and enforce deeper lockdowns, so mine 90 days is *fastest* possible resolution.

The virus still has potential room for 8000x growth before running out of humans. (assuming no mutations that allow re-infecting the same hosts multiple times).

Yesterday I was chatting with an American friend who optimistically thought we'd be out of this by next month, based on the current term of the Bay Area shelter-in place restrictions (May 3rd).

So let's do some back-of-the envelope calculations to see how fast it could end, at the very best:

Today we cross 1M confirmed cases 😱
#coronavírus

@tsturm @InvaderXan So sorry! There are a bunch of them in Tokyo. Picard also has ravioli, but they're not fresh.

@nickmofo #c64

@boingbot Interesting documentary, and easy #Japanese listening practice with the subs.

@tsturm @InvaderXan I bought 4 packs of these ravioli at Bio c'Bon, but in retrospect I should have filled the entire fridge with them.

Nobody ain't got time for eating anything else when there's
😋

@InvaderXan I'm definitely gaining weight with my "home cooking"

@hhardy01 @deejoe @rysiek ah, yes! It was (a fork of) Supybot!

@rfb Last time I took the exam, my problem was actually being too slow at reading and running out of time to answer all the questions

@rfb My N3 coverage is spotty, because WaniKani doesn't proceed in JLPT order and not even Joyo order.