Exit poll for the Spanish elections by the state TV (RTVE):

1) PSOE (center-left socialists, 28,1%)
2) PP (right-wing conservatives, 17,8%)
3) Ciudadanos (Macron-like liberals, 14,4%)
4) Unidas Podemos (anti-system left-wing, 16,1%)
5) Vox (I think it's fair to call them the far right now, 12,1%)

Notice how disproportionate the amounts of votes and seats are

RTVE claims participation has been of 78%. That's MASSIVE!!!

50% of the votes have been escrutinized! Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand here's how the Congress would look like if that was it!

1) PSOE (center-left socialists, 29,61%)
2) PP (right-wing conservatives, 16,70%)
3) Ciudadanos (Macron-like liberals, 14,86%)
4) Unidas Podemos (anti-system left-wing, 11,96%)
5) Vox (I think it's fair to call them the far right now, 9,83%)
6) ERC (Catalan moderate left independentists, 3,67%)

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Fun fact: Euskadi, a region with a strong national identity, gives exactly 0 (zero) seats to right-wing unionist (pro-Spain) parties

95% of vote scrutinized. I think it's fair to call these results stable enough.

So, what happened?

- 176 seats are required for an absolute majority. The most likely coalition is PSOE + Ciudadanos, which would produce a very nationalistic but socially and economically moderate government. It's going to be problematic, and will have to assume control over the incoming recession on top of the independence issue.
- Catalonia keeps voting dialogue, but the independence vote isn't as strong. Pro-independence: 39.4%, pro-referendum: 54.28%. Against referendum: 43.19%

- Karma didn't work out well for the nationalistic right wing. atm they're at 42.77% of votes and 42.29% of seats. They refused to change how seats are distributed because there usually was just one party while the left was fragmented (PP-C's-Vox had 46.27% votes - 48.29% seats last time) and thus easier to make votes not count for. But now that the right is fragmented and they actually lost votes, they have to deal with the issue the left had to for the last decade.

- Oh yeah. They completely flopped. 75.78% turnout, unprecedented. Yet the right loses votes. Whoopsie? Everyone expected Vox to increase dramatically, some people even thought it would get like 30% of the vote. Well, Ciudadanos actually rose up by keeping their (mostly moderate) policies but raising the amount of , even despite of the leader's disrespectful and childish behavior at a debate. And meanwhile Vox, that promising little David against Goliath, really didn't do much.

(no, don't expect a 1:1 accurate estimation of the results. You can't perfectly predict the future. Please learn to read confidence intervals, error margins, etc)

- Finally, the most depressing part of the elections: we didn't just vote for Congress. We also voted for Senate. It's somehow so utterly broken that PSOE got absolute majority on it, which means that they ultimately have full control over legislative power, as they can just veto any law approved on Congress, just as the conservatives did until now. Hooray.

So, these are the possible government coalitions in :

- Nationalistic, otherwise moderate Ciudadanos + PSOE
- Full left wing coalition (including separatists)

That's pretty much it. If C's refuse to join them and it's not possible to agree with separatists, we would have to go to new elections.

@espectalll I'd say most likely coalition is PSOE + UP + Compromís, less nationalistic.

@daelvn that's three parties tho, and it would have to be easier to negotiate with them than with C's. PSOE is perfectly fine with nationalism, just look up their position on article 155, forbidding referendums, the state advocacy's request to prosecute voters, so on.

@espectalll I think we need to take into consideration the overall position of Cs in the coalition panorama, I'm fairly sure it is more likely for PSOE to pact with UP. I forgot to include ERC in the pact, though, then Compromís wouldn't be necessary. But idk.

@daelvn Sorry, I only see hopeful thinking there. But we'll see later.

@marsxyz Nope. Not. A. Single. One. Ciudadanos has three and Vox zero as well.

@espectalll Until the 2015 UK general election happened and the Conservatives won overall control of government, exceeding poll expectations.

@thatbrickster "exceeding poll expectations"

please read the next toot on the thread

@espectalll I did. Our pollsters got it wrong back then as the result was significantly different to what they were saying.

@thatbrickster That the polls themselves were significantly different doesn't mean they didn't acknowledge how different the final result could be like.

@espectalll Everyone expected contention between the Labour and Conservative parties in votes. It was considered a shock when literally every pollster got it wrong after all margins were considered.

@thatbrickster Same with Trump. That's the people reading and promoting them to blame for not taking anything but the most likely estimation into account (which doesn't mean others are significantly less likely).

@orekix Muchos miembros filofranquistas si no directamente fascistas. En palabras de Abascal, líder: "No estoy ni en la crítica destructiva ni en la apología de Franco. Lo de Franco fue un régimen autoritario, pero no fue Hitler ni Stalin."

@espectalll @orekix tiene razón. Pero no sé si le faltó matar más gente o ser más exitoso.

@astheroth @orekix Llamarlo autoritario y decir que tampoco fue Hitler o Stalin tiene muchísima carga (ignorar guerra civil, omitir legitimidad, menospreciar muertos, desaparecidos y exiliados, decir que no hace crítica destructiva ni apología cuando no hace crítica alguna, etc)

@espectalll @orekix no sé como lo tratan en españa pero estas cuestiones nacen de la falta de sinceridad. Llega un momento en que en vez de hablar las cosas las escondes y luego explotan por cualquier lado. Asi es con cualquier ideología extremista. España ha tratado lo de franco como un tema tabú.... ahora ser o declararse franquista en España es ser mas disruptivo que ser republicano. Mucha gente no los va a votar porque estén de acuerdo, sino porque repudian su actual sistema. Voto protesta?

@espectalll @orekix Una cuestión así. Muchas veces la masa se cansa del status quo... Y cuando eso pasa.. o hay revoluciones, guerras civiles o golpes de estado...

O si no, votan al disruptivo hahahah

@astheroth @orekix Viendo los resultados electorales, pues no era para tanto

@espectalll ERC and Podemos have very similar programs, yet you set ones as moderate left and the others as radicals, why is that?

@madmalkav I haven't said Podemos is radical ("radical" doesn't mean extremist or violent either). But UP is a very varied coalition ranging from capitalistic moderates to communists, greens, so on.

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