Exit poll for the Spanish elections by the state TV (RTVE):
1) PSOE (center-left socialists, 28,1%)
2) PP (right-wing conservatives, 17,8%)
3) Ciudadanos (Macron-like liberals, 14,4%)
4) Unidas Podemos (anti-system left-wing, 16,1%)
5) Vox (I think it's fair to call them the far right now, 12,1%)
Notice how disproportionate the amounts of votes and seats are
1) PSOE (center-left socialists, 29,61%)
2) PP (right-wing conservatives, 16,70%)
3) Ciudadanos (Macron-like liberals, 14,86%)
4) Unidas Podemos (anti-system left-wing, 11,96%)
5) Vox (I think it's fair to call them the far right now, 9,83%)
6) ERC (Catalan moderate left independentists, 3,67%)
So, what happened?
- 176 seats are required for an absolute majority. The most likely coalition is PSOE + Ciudadanos, which would produce a very nationalistic but socially and economically moderate government. It's going to be problematic, and will have to assume control over the incoming recession on top of the independence issue.
- Catalonia keeps voting dialogue, but the independence vote isn't as strong. Pro-independence: 39.4%, pro-referendum: 54.28%. Against referendum: 43.19%
- Karma didn't work out well for the nationalistic right wing. atm they're at 42.77% of votes and 42.29% of seats. They refused to change how seats are distributed because there usually was just one party while the left was fragmented (PP-C's-Vox had 46.27% votes - 48.29% seats last time) and thus easier to make votes not count for. But now that the right is fragmented and they actually lost votes, they have to deal with the issue the left had to for the last decade.
- Oh yeah. They completely flopped. 75.78% turnout, unprecedented. Yet the right loses votes. Whoopsie? Everyone expected Vox to increase dramatically, some people even thought it would get like 30% of the vote. Well, Ciudadanos actually rose up by keeping their (mostly moderate) policies but raising the amount of #patriotism, even despite of the leader's disrespectful and childish behavior at a debate. And meanwhile Vox, that promising little David against Goliath, really didn't do much.
- People should trust polls more. They actually work, you just need to know how to read them.
- Finally, the most depressing part of the elections: we didn't just vote for Congress. We also voted for Senate. It's somehow so utterly broken that PSOE got absolute majority on it, which means that they ultimately have full control over legislative power, as they can just veto any law approved on Congress, just as the conservatives did until now. Hooray.
So, these are the possible government coalitions in #Spain:
- Nationalistic, otherwise moderate Ciudadanos + PSOE
- Full left wing coalition (including separatists)
That's pretty much it. If C's refuse to join them and it's not possible to agree with separatists, we would have to go to new elections.
@daelvn that's three parties tho, and it would have to be easier to negotiate with them than with C's. PSOE is perfectly fine with nationalism, just look up their position on article 155, forbidding referendums, the state advocacy's request to prosecute voters, so on.
@espectalll I think we need to take into consideration the overall position of Cs in the coalition panorama, I'm fairly sure it is more likely for PSOE to pact with UP. I forgot to include ERC in the pact, though, then Compromís wouldn't be necessary. But idk.
@thatbrickster That the polls themselves were significantly different doesn't mean they didn't acknowledge how different the final result could be like.
@thatbrickster Same with Trump. That's the people reading and promoting them to blame for not taking anything but the most likely estimation into account (which doesn't mean others are significantly less likely).
@orekix Muchos miembros filofranquistas si no directamente fascistas. En palabras de Abascal, líder: "No estoy ni en la crítica destructiva ni en la apología de Franco. Lo de Franco fue un régimen autoritario, pero no fue Hitler ni Stalin."
@espectalll @orekix no sé como lo tratan en españa pero estas cuestiones nacen de la falta de sinceridad. Llega un momento en que en vez de hablar las cosas las escondes y luego explotan por cualquier lado. Asi es con cualquier ideología extremista. España ha tratado lo de franco como un tema tabú.... ahora ser o declararse franquista en España es ser mas disruptivo que ser republicano. Mucha gente no los va a votar porque estén de acuerdo, sino porque repudian su actual sistema. Voto protesta?
@espectalll ERC and Podemos have very similar programs, yet you set ones as moderate left and the others as radicals, why is that?
@madmalkav I haven't said Podemos is radical ("radical" doesn't mean extremist or violent either). But UP is a very varied coalition ranging from capitalistic moderates to communists, greens, so on.
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