I don't know why, but I have a slight suspicion that this Brexit thing is not going to end up well bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49981

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it's such a mystery that after so many years of doing the same thing over and over with a border that should miraculously block everything but UK-Irish people and goods without any legal or physical issue, you end up with people saying that it's "essentially impossible" and "overwhelmingly unlikely"

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@espectalll You can't really trust any leaks from difficult negotiations, but the message at the following link, from a Downing Street source, is interesting:



@mpjgregoire wow, they really are detached from society, don't they?

@espectalll Not sure exactly what you mean here. If you're saying that they're focusing on high stakes negotiations with foreign leaders — well of course they are. If you're saying that their desire to achieve #Brexit one way or another is out of step with public sentiment — that might be true, but personally I don't really know the present state of public opinion in the UK. (I know @fitheach opposes, but not how representative he is.) Do we have useful polling results?

In the EU Referendum 62% in Scotland voted to Remain in the EU. That view hasn't been respected in any way over the last 3 years. The UK as a whole voted 52% Leave. A narrow victory for Leave wouldn't ordinarily result in a hard Brexit, which a no-deal departure would be. Plus, many on the Leave side specifically ruled-out a no-deal or even leaving the EU Single Market prior to the referendum.

On balance, polling currently shows a slight majority for Remain.



@mpjgregoire @espectalll


The Spectator is a right-wing (Conservative supporting) publication, which is "quoting" an unnamed source. Not exactly a reliable source.

@fitheach @espectalll
Do you have any idea whether British public sentiment is more strongly worried about a no-deal #Brexit or desires to get things over with? I see a recent poll giving Tories + Brexit party 47% support, so perhaps the latter.

Regarding the *Spectator* article, the source is clearly trying to lay blame on the Benn Act and Taoiseach Varadkar for failure of the latest British #Brexit proposal. That could be true, but it's obviously self-serving.

Phrases like "a Downing Street source" or "someone close to the PM" always means it is precisely the PM, but he doesn't want to be quoted on it.

BoJo is currently playing the blame game. When the no-deal exit happens (as it is 99% likely to now) he can blame Juncker/Merkel/Varadkar/whoever, anyone but himself and his predecessor.

@espectalll @bob

@fitheach @espectalll
I imagined that Dominic Cummings was the source, but that's probably because there are only two people I can name at No. 10. ;)

Wait and see, PM May will be blamed for no-deal as well.

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