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Unless Boris Johnson does something stupid (can't be discounted) he probably has the leadership in the bag.

Commissioned by The Telegraph, fieldwork by Comres.

Voting intentions for the various parties with different Conservative leaders:

Specific data.
For example:

Current voting intention:

Labour 27%
Conservatives 23%
Brexit Party 22%
Lib Dem 17%

If instead Boris Johnson was leader:

Conservatives 37%
Labour 22%
Lib Dem 20%
Brexit Party 14%

Now, you could argue that this polling data is rubbish, BUT any Tory members seeing this data are bound to be swayed.

Tory party members ultimately choose the leader, and therefore the next PM.

No data to support this assertion, but I suspect a Boris Johnson PM would hasten Scottish independence.

See, every cloud has a silver lining.

First round of the Tory leadership election.

Candidates proceeding to the next round:

* Boris Johnson 114
* Jeremy Hunt 43
* Michael Gove 37
* Dominic Raab 27
* Sajid Javid 23
* Matt Hancock 20
* Rory Stewart 19

Eliminated:

* Mark Harper
* Andrea Leadsom
* Esther McVey

It would appear the Sunday Times agrees with me, and they have some polling data to support the conclusion that:

Boris Johnson as Prime Minister will put an end to the UK.

politics

The Sunday Times article is paywalled, so I will get hold of the cited polling data instead.

The Sunday Times commissioned poll was a weighted sample of 1024 voters in Scotland, and it asked the standard referendum question with the additional proviso that Boris Johnson was Prime Minister

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 53%
No 47%

Come on, Boris.

@fitheach

May Cthulhu have mercy on our souls.

Boris? THAT Boris? Really? 🤢

@ParadeGrotesque
Sounds like a football chant:
There's only one Boris Johnson...

Thankfully that is true. One is too much already.

@ParadeGrotesque @fitheach I’ll never understand what people like about Boris - he is obviously an incompetent liar.

@tsturm
He cultivates the lovable clown persona. Why people get taken in with that projection, I don't know.

@ParadeGrotesque

@fitheach @ParadeGrotesque I guess “lovable clown” is a marked improvement over the “horror clown” type that seems to be favored by US conservatives.

@tsturm
The lovable part is the projection. The horror part might be real, just partially hidden.

@ParadeGrotesque

@fitheach @tsturm

I am afraid Boris is just Donald T with slightly less incompetence and a posh Cambridge accent.

So, yeah, him as UK PM sucks rocks through a straw. To borrow a nice turn of phrases from across the pond.

@GreenandBlack
I'm not sure. There isn't much ideology left in British politics (in some quarters, anyway). The whole Brexit thing has a Trump feel about it.

@fitheach the Brexiteers must understand that they are a Minority and should bow to the Democratic Principle and give up

@yukiame
The Brexiteers are a huge majority in the Conservative party. They would also sell their grannies if it enabled Brexit to happen.

@fitheach they can migrate to Iceland where they are safe from the EU and we are safe from them

@fitheach ufff! Want to make the mistake of major constitutional change on such a slim majority? Cripes, look at Brexit.

@StuC
I'm all for starting the referendum campaign now, even if we were behind in the polls. The only real way to get Yes ahead is through a campaign.

If I had been in Nicola's shoes (I know, they probably wouldn't fit) I would've started the campaign two years ago.

@fitheach Last week I said it was a two horse race (Boris/Gove) but surprisingly Gove's Coke faux-pas seems to have opened the way for Jeremy H[C]unt.

No political analysis required. Just check the odds at the bookies.

@fitheach again, I was about to ask 'Who the feck would give a flying fuck that Gove snorted cocaine when he was a journo 20 years ago ?'

...but the answer, as always, is the elderly, wizened, sleeping Torygraph readers (stereotypical Tory party members). They care.

It's like a Harry Enfield sketch.

@fitheach Oh you don't want to pay any heed to his friends at the Torygraph !

@andyc @iona
Of course, a large bowl of salt is required, but see my comment up thread about the influence this will have on the members.

@fitheach @iona Indeed. And that is all those Tories care about - preservation of the status quo.

@andyc
Conservative by name, conservative by nature.

@iona

@fitheach This is like watching 'Kasperletheater' (the German word is most fitting, I think). He who must be Punch(ed).

@inAktion
No, I think that is too high brow for UK politics. 😉

pol 

pol 

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