Unless Boris Johnson does something stupid (can't be discounted) he probably has the leadership in the bag.

Commissioned by The Telegraph, fieldwork by Comres.

Voting intentions for the various parties with different Conservative leaders:

Specific data.
For example:

Current voting intention:

Labour 27%
Conservatives 23%
Brexit Party 22%
Lib Dem 17%

If instead Boris Johnson was leader:

Conservatives 37%
Labour 22%
Lib Dem 20%
Brexit Party 14%


Now, you could argue that this polling data is rubbish, BUT any Tory members seeing this data are bound to be swayed.

Tory party members ultimately choose the leader, and therefore the next PM.

No data to support this assertion, but I suspect a Boris Johnson PM would hasten Scottish independence.

See, every cloud has a silver lining.

First round of the Tory leadership election.

Candidates proceeding to the next round:

* Boris Johnson 114
* Jeremy Hunt 43
* Michael Gove 37
* Dominic Raab 27
* Sajid Javid 23
* Matt Hancock 20
* Rory Stewart 19


* Mark Harper
* Andrea Leadsom
* Esther McVey

It would appear the Sunday Times agrees with me, and they have some polling data to support the conclusion that:

Boris Johnson as Prime Minister will put an end to the UK.


The Sunday Times article is paywalled, so I will get hold of the cited polling data instead.

The Sunday Times commissioned poll was a weighted sample of 1024 voters in Scotland, and it asked the standard referendum question with the additional proviso that Boris Johnson was Prime Minister

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 53%
No 47%

Come on, Boris.

I'm not sure. There isn't much ideology left in British politics (in some quarters, anyway). The whole Brexit thing has a Trump feel about it.

@fitheach the Brexiteers must understand that they are a Minority and should bow to the Democratic Principle and give up

The Brexiteers are a huge majority in the Conservative party. They would also sell their grannies if it enabled Brexit to happen.

@fitheach they can migrate to Iceland where they are safe from the EU and we are safe from them

@fitheach ufff! Want to make the mistake of major constitutional change on such a slim majority? Cripes, look at Brexit.

I'm all for starting the referendum campaign now, even if we were behind in the polls. The only real way to get Yes ahead is through a campaign.

If I had been in Nicola's shoes (I know, they probably wouldn't fit) I would've started the campaign two years ago.

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