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@bert_hubert Deciding what is true and what is false is no small feat, it is hard. We all err, so the relevant metric is the error quantity. Future events are the ultimate test. All else can be over-fit, but the future is unknown. (even if it has its own problems like skill-luck distinction). Reflecting back, looks to me 1) a strong ego is bit of a hindrance there (even if it generally helps push through obstacles) 2) more of a narcissistic personality (rather than less) also makes it harder.